Where the Hell are the Hits?
Alarmingly few mass-appeal Top 10 hits have emerged so far in 2025. How few? Arguably, only one.
Quick. Name the biggest Top 10 hits released so far in 2025.
Can’t think of many, can you?
Despite almost half of the year being behind us, there have been shockingly few mass-appeal hits emerge in 2025.
If you really want to be rigid about it, there’s been exactly one.
What is a mass-appeal hit?
Let’s establish measurable benchmarks.
Since the 1990s, around 58 songs have reached the Billboard Hot 100’s Top 10 in a typical year. That number has remained remarkably similar from the days of CDs though the iTunes era and into today’s streaming era. Streaming has boosted that number slightly to 63 top 10 songs in a typical year.
(Side note: Prior to the early 1990s, there were more Top 10 hits each year because Billboard relied on self-reported ranked lists from record stores about sales and radio stations about airplay. Once Billboard introduced SoundScan to measure actual sales and airplay, we discovered songs remained big hits longer than we thought. Songs staying in the Top 10 longer mathematically means fewer songs can be in the Top 10. You can learn more in Why it’s so hard to know what’s really a hit today if you’re curious, but that’s why we’ll ignore pre-1992 hits here.)
However, the streaming era has significantly changed which songs become Top 10 hits.
What makes a “Viable” Hit?
Not all Top 10 hits are the same.
Some songs reach the Top 10, only to drop out within a week or so. Most of these songs disappear before most of us even hear them, much less get to know and love them. If you’re one of our chart gurus, you know countless songs that only spent a week or two in the Top 10 that history has crowned beloved classics—but you also know those exceptions prove the rule.
Many songs spend weeks—nowadays even months—in the Top 10. These songs become well known cultural touch points. We all sing them at ballgames. Our kids annoy us by playing them non-stop. We annoy our kids by playing them non-stop. Many will ultimately end up on the Classic Hits station.
I distinguish these two categories as “nonviable” vs. “viable” top 10 hits. If a song remains in the Top 10 for only one to three weeks, it’s in the former “nonviable” group. If it remains in the Top 10 for four or more weeks, it’s in the latter “viable group.”
While the total number of Top 10 hits has increased slightly as streaming has replaced CDs and iTunes, the number of Top 10 hits that are actually viable hits has plummeted:
A major reason, as I explored in intimate detail in Does The #1 Song Even Matter Anymore, is that streaming amplifies the impact of artists’ biggest fans binge-streaming their latest tracks when they drop. When you bought a CD or downloaded on iTunes, your fandom only counted as one purchase. In the streaming era, every play of every track counts. So far in 2025, over half of the Top 10 hits have only stayed in the Top 10 for one week.
If we further drill down to songs that spend just one week in the Top 10, but peak among the Top 5, we eliminate those songs that slip into the Top 10’s lower rungs for only a week and focus on songs with massive, but short-lived consumption. This phenomenon of s song debuting in the Hot 100’s Top 5, only to disappear from the Top 10 after that lone week, didn’t exist at all until this century and barely existed during the days of iTunes. In the 2020s, with streaming becoming mainstream, it’s commonplace.
With so many non-viable hits clogging up the Hot 100’s Top 10, there’s less room for the hits that do stick around. This decline isn’t entirely streaming’s fault. In fact, the number of “viable” hits per year has fallen since the early 2000s.
In 2023, a record low 22 songs reached the Top 10 and stayed there for four or more weeks. In 2024, 25 songs did—the second lowest year in Hot 100 history.
So far in 2025---brace yourself---only six “viable” hits have reached the Top 10.
The Six Viable Hits of 2025
Here are the six songs that first reached the Top 10 this year that have remained Top 10 for at least four weeks. We’re using this metric as an indicator that a song is—or at least has the potential to be—a song most Americans know and many of us love. Under closer scrutiny, however, not even these six songs truly are mass appeal hits.
"Pink Pony Club" by Chappell Roan: It’s only a 2025 hit on a technicality: As the third song Top 40 radio embraced from Roan, Thanks radio embracing the song earlier this year, “Pink Pony Club” first reached the Top 10 in February 2025, peaking at #4 in late April, ultimately spending 13 weeks in the Top 10, Among the many fans who discovered Chappel Roan on streaming, however, “Pink Pony Club” was already a hit in August 2024.
Arguably, that leaves us five songs:
"I'm the Problem" by Morgan Wallen. It instantly joined the Top 10 when it dropped in February, peaking upon release at #2. It returned to the Top 10 thanks to Wallen’s album release in May. It’s currently #5 on the Hot 100. While “I’m the Problem” is the #3 most-played song on Country radio, Pop stations aren’t playing it at all. Unlike Wallen’s “What I Want” with Tate McRae, which has crossed over to America’s Top 40 and Adult Contemporary stations, “I’m the Problem” is huge among Country fans, but isn’t a hit among the broader Pop audience.
"Just in Case" by Morgan Wallen has a similar story: Debuting in the Top 10 in late April, it peaked at #2 on the Hot 100 in late May when Wallen dropped his latest album. “Just In Case” is currently #3 thanks to strong streaming, but it’s only the 11th most played song on Country radio stations and isn’t on Pop radio.
If we’re evaluating truly mass appeal hits, Wallen’s hits don’t count either—leaving us with three songs.
"Nokia" by Drake: Unlike many Drake songs of yore, “Nokia” didn’t debut at #1. It took seven weeks to climb to #2 in late April. It’s currently #10 on the Hot 100, it’s 13th week in the Top 10. That’s largely from streaming. It’s the 8th biggest song on Spotify, but only #51 on Top 40 radio and #10 on Hip Hop & R&B stations. Based on the analyses I conduct for radio programmers in The Hit Momentum Report, “Nokie” could be a mass appeal Pop hit if mainstream hit music stations would play it. I guess Kendrick scored them away.
If we conclude “Nokia” isn’t widely known because of its absence on Pop radio, however, we’re down to two songs.
"Anxiety" by Doechii: Okay, this one’s weird. It was a massive streaming hit when it dropped in early March. Spotify users played it over 10 million times each week for its first two weeks. I thought it was destined for greatness. Then, fans who played it relentlessly at first vanished rapidly. This past week, “Anxiety” barely got 2 million plays on Spotify and will likely drop out of the Spotify 200 entirely by the time you read this post.
Meanwhile, radio picked up on “Anxiety,” where the broader audience of passive fans have embraced it. The song reached the Top 10 in late March thanks to radio exposure. Then in late May, after streaming had already plummeted, “Anxiety” peaked at #9 Last week, it was the #1 song on America’s hit music station.
With “Anxiety,” we have the opposite of Drake’s “Nokia:” a song that’s a huge hit on the radio, but bombed among streaming listeners.
If we’re looking for a that’s universally a hit among both streaming users and radio listeners, that leaves only one:
The only unanimous hit of 2025
"Ordinary" by Alex Warren: It’s the #1 song on the Hot 100 this week. It’s #2 on the Spotify 200 chart. It’s #3 on Top 40 radio—and #1 on those “Hot Adult Contemporary” stations for moms not quite ready to surrender to Lite-FM.
That makes “Ordinary” the only song released this year that is universally a hit on both streaming platforms and Pop radio. It’s arguably the only hit released this year that’s a mas appeal hit.
In his Slate column “Why Is This Song #1,” chart historian Chris Molanphy tags Warren a “Wife Guy” artist. It’s yet another example of how Adults are currently controlling the charts as we await Generation Z to assert their influence.
Things could be different.
Several songs released this year show mass-appeal hit potential on streaming but haven’t received the exposure on terrestrial radio that would introduce these songs to a wide but passive fan base:
sombr’s “undressed” has consistently been among America’s most streamed song for over two months. It’s still #3 on Spotify. Despite being a highly accessible sounding Pop Alternative song, it’s received almost no airplay so far. Without radio, “undressed” has only reached #25 on the Hot 100.
sombr’s “back to friends” is right behind “undressed” at #4 on Spotify. With no radio airplay at all, it’s #38 on the Hot 100 based entirely on streaming.
Drake – NOKIA, as noted above, is mathematically a real hit, but primarily from strong streaming.
Lil Tecca - Dark Thoughts is a missed opportunity.. Peaking at #2 on Spotify in March, it’s consistently remained among Spotify’s 20 biggest songs for three months.
Ravyn Lenae - Love Me Not is a 2024 release that broke out in 2025 and has been steadily growing on streaming ever since.
Instead of these potential 2025 hits, your local hit music station is still giving top rotations to Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” “Stargazing” from Myles Smith, 30 FOR 30 from SZA & Kendrick Lamar, and Lola Young’s “Messy.” All are proven mass-appeal hits. They’re also all 2024 hits. They’re also now seeing streaming dip as listeners move on to newer songs.
Yes, streaming’s switch from measuring purchases to plays has clogged the Hot 100’s Top 10 with songs that Artist Stans sample, but that never go on to be hits.
And yes, radio’s playing it safe is arguably robbing us of tomorrow’s proven hits. (I discuss one reason that’s happening in my post, “Is Research Ruining Radio?”)
If you conclude nothing else from this analysis, observe that your local FM radio station in 2025 still plays a vital role in introducing mass audiences to hit songs. The highest charting established hit on this week’s Hot 100 with only streaming to thank for its audience is #38.
If you program a CHR or Hot AC station…
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Data sources for this post:
The Billboard Hot 100, week ending June 14th, 2025: https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100
Wikipedia’s Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 singles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Billboard_Hot_100_top-ten_singles
Pollstar Mediabase Radio Airplay Chart: Top 40: https://www.pollstar.com/charts/4842/top-40/mediabase
Pollstar Mediabase Radio Airplay Chart: Hot Adult Contemporary: https://www.pollstar.com/charts/4841/hot-ac/mediabase
Pollstar Mediabase Radio Airplay Chart: Adult contemporary: https://www.pollstar.com/charts/4860/ac/mediabase
Pollstar Mediabase Radio Airplay Chart: Country: https://www.pollstar.com/charts/4837/country/mediabase
Pollstar Mediabase Radio Airplay Chart: Hip Hop & R&B https://www.pollstar.com/charts/4858/urban/mediabase
Spotify 200, United States, Week ending June 5th, 2025: https://charts.spotify.com/charts/overview/us