Is Top 40 Radio Out of Touch?
A different approach to analyzing Spotify data suggests America’s program directors do, in fact, know what they’re doing... mostly.
If you simply compare the 10 songs America’s Top 40 radio stations play most with the 10 songs America’s Spotify users play most, you’d quickly assume radio must be out of touch. Here’s the total number of times Contemporary Hit Radio stations played their biggest songs (according to Mediabase) for the week ending April 7th, 2024:
Now, here’s the total Spotify streams for the 10 songs America’s Spotify users played most for the week ending April 4th, 2024. Note that only three titles are Top 10 on both radio and Spotify.
When we compare how often Spotify users played Top 40 radio’s 10-most played songs (the upper part of the chart below), with the 10 biggest songs on Spotify that are not among Radis’s 10 most played tunes (the lower part of the chart below), it looks like radio is playing a whole lot of unpopular songs when there are far bigger hits it could play:
“But, Matt! Didn’t you say looking at streaming data for the week is misleading for some reason?”
You are a very astute GraphsAboutSongs reader!
ACTIVE VS. PASSIVE FANDOM
As I explained in this post about what constitutes a hit today and this post about what if Spotify programmed your radio station, streaming data amplifies active music consumption from artists’ biggest fans who binge new songs as soon as they drop. They’re songs that a relatively small group of people play unusually frequently for a very short period of time.
Radio has long known, however, that just because a small group of ardent fans binge a brand new release doesn’t mean that song will grow to be a song a large number of people know and love. When someone never sought out a specific song, but grows to really dig it once they unintentionally hear it a few (or many) times, that fan is a passive fan of that song. Astute radio programmers know the passive fan base for any given hit song is multitudes larger than that song’s active fan base.
(Chart guru Chris Molanphy provides a fantastic explanation of the difference between active fandom and passive fandom in this article.)
Although streaming data such as Spotify’s Top 200 Weekly Charts amplifies that active fandom binge listening, some of the streaming data does, in fact, reflect passive music fandom,
When you discover a song you like in a Spotify playlist someone else compiled, that’s passive fandom in streaming data.
When you discover a song on the radio and eventually add to your own playlist, that’s passive fandom in streaming data.
When a song’s stuck in your head and you have no idea where you first heard it, but you play it on Spotify because you’re in the mood, that’s passive fandom in streaming data.
Is there a way to examine streaming data that better balances active and passive fan consumption better than what’s hot this week?
A BETTER APPROACH: EXAMINE STREAMING DATA OVER TIME
Instead of simply looking at one week, what if we examined the songs Spotify users played most for all of 2024 so far? Would Spotify usage better align with radio airplay when we look at total streams over several months instead of only this week?
Below are the total streams on Spotify for the first 14 weeks of 2024:
This 14-week total looks a lot more like Top 40 radio than what Spotify users played during only one week. The majority of these songs received massive Top 40 radio airplay.
You’ll also notice, however, that half of these songs are now too old for most hit music stations to play in their heaviest rotation, which is typically reserved for songs less than about half a year old:
To create a more relevant comparison, I’ll now remove any song charting on Spotify’s Top 200 for more than 28 weeks from our list of 2024’s most streamed songs on Spotify:
Let’s compare the total Spotify streams for the first 14 weeks of 2024 for the songs Top 40 is playing most (the upper section of the chart below) with the biggest songs on Spotify so far in 2024 that are not among radio’s Top 10 (the lower section of the chart below). You’ll notice a lot less discrepancy than when we only looked at one week’s Spotify streams above.
To quantify just how much closer Top 40’s biggest songs are to Spotify’s biggest songs when we examine Spotify streams over time, here are those total Spotify streams for one week vs. the first 14 weeks of 2024:
The reason for this difference is simple: When people grow to know and love a song, they keep playing it week after week. Even if a song doesn’t debut with a huge splash, those consistent weekly streams add up over time.
Let’s look at some of those songs that rise to the top for both Top 40 radio exposure and in multi-week streaming plays:
Jack Harlow’s “Lovin On Me,” which tops our 14-week Spotify analysis and remains radio’s 3rd most played song, peaked in weekly streams in late January, but still garners about half as many streams in April compared to its peak week:
Benson Boone’s Beautiful Things, which rapidly rose to top both radio airplay and Spotify plays, still gets almost as many plays each week as it did when it peaked on Spotify five weeks ago.
“Lose Control” from Teddy Swims took a while to catch on among Spotify users, but once it did, folks simply kept playing it week after week much as they keep playing “Beautiful Things.”
Finally, Tate McRae’s “greedy” (sic) generally would no longer be big on radio due to its age. With it holding onto 73% of its weekly Spotify plays 17 weeks after its peak week, no wonder radio keeps it in current rotation.
In contrast, consider Megan Thee Stallion’s “HISS.” It debuted at #3 on Spotify’s weekly U.S. chart with over 10-million streams, more than “Lose Control” or “Greedy” during their peak weeks. A scant three weeks later, however, Spotify users played “HISS” just 11% as often as they did when it debuted, after which it fell out of Spotify’s Top 200 entirely.
Perhaps diss tracks simply don’t have long shelf lives.
SONGS THAT PERFORM BETTER FOR RADIO RETAIN THEIR STREAMING AUDIENCE
You may still wonder why America’s hit music stations are playing songs such as “Sabrina Carpenter’s “Feather” and Tyla’s “Water,” which have relatively fewer streams than other songs that are Top 10 on Spotify. Presumably, radio stations’ callout research shows a lot of listeners have grown to know and love these songs.
Is there any common pattern in those songs’ streaming pattern?
Yes—it’s called Retentionsm.
We’ve already seen strong Retention in those songs that are big on radio and in long-term Spotify streaming. However, Retention can also help us understand why a song that might not be an obvious hit from its Spotify data is still a perfect song for Top 40 radio:
Sabrina Carpenter’s “Feather” didn’t see a major burst of binge listening when it dropped; it took nine weeks to reach its peak and was only Spotify’s 20th most popular song that peak week. Ten weeks after that peak week, however, fans still played “Feather” 77% as often as they did that peak week. “Feather” retained its fans—meaning they just keep on playing it.
Comparably, Tyla’s “Water” still garnered 93% as many plays ten weeks after peaking and 78% of its plays 23 weeks after its peak week. That’s extremely strong Retention.
These songs might not be the most played songs on Spotify on any single week. “Feather” never ranked higher than 20th on Spotify’s weekly Top 200. “Water” only reached #23. Since listeners consistently listen to these songs week after week, however, these songs rise when we examine their total plays on Spotify over many weeks instead of only this week:
Sabrina Carpenter’s “Feather” is only #72 on Spotify’s Top 200 weekly chart for April 4th. Among 2024’s most-streamed songs (excluding songs older than 28 weeks), it’s #17.
Likewise, Tyla’s “Water” is #84 on the recent weekly Spotify chart, but is #28 among Spotify’s most streamed songs so far in 2024.
Even Doja Cat’s “Agora Hills,” which is the oldest song still among Top 40 Radio’s 10 most-played songs, is still getting 47% as many plays each week on Spotify 19 weeks after it’s streaming peak.
This streaming pattern is indicative of a song that may not have a huge active fan base when it’s first released, but develops a sizable passive fan base over time.
What constitutes strong Retention?
Examine a song’s weekly streams 10 weeks after its biggest streaming week on Spotify. If that song still gets half (50%) or more streams in its 10th week, it is likely a lasting hit with a mass-appeal audience. If it’s getting less than 30%, however, it probably has low passion among radio listeners, too.
(Why the 10 week past peak benchmark? Because it typically takes 10 weeks of airplay on radio for a song to reach its highest familiarity and passion level among listeners, as measured in typical callout research.)
In contrast, look at Ariana Grande’s “Yes, And?” It was Spotify’s #1 most played song the week it debuted, but saw significant declines in subsequent weeks. Ten weeks after debuting, it retained only 32% of its peak plays. No wonder the song was short-lived on radio: Radio stations’ music research probably showed that listeners just weren’t that into “Yes, And?”
The only song Spotify’s streaming data can’t support Top 40 radio playing among its top 10 titles is Justin Timberlake’s “Selfish,” which was only among Spotify’s Top 200 for two weeks. (Perhaps they’re pandering to those of us old enough to remember 'N Sync.)
IS RADIO IGNORING BIGGER HITS?
Okay, so strong Retention of weekly plays on Spotify week after week validates why radio plays certain songs. But what about the songs missing from radio’s Top 10 that are huge on Spotify, even when we examine several months’ total streams? Should radio be playing those songs?
Let’s examine the six songs that are big on Spotify so far in 2024, but not among Top 40 Radio’s 10.
1) Two songs are already on Top 40 Radio.
21 Savage’s “redrum” (sic) is now (finally) receiving Top 40 airplay (It’s #33), With Redrum’s 10-week retention at a strong 66%, Top 40 stations whose listeners aren’t averse to real Hip Hop could probably play it more often than they do now. I’d argue Top 40 should have jumped on “Redrum” weeks ago.
Top 40 is also playing Djo’s “End of Beginning”, albeit at a lower level (#26) since it’s a relatively new song. It only peaked three weeks ago on Spotify, but its Retention since then is strong enough to suggest radio could play it more often.
2) Three songs are big hits in other radio formats.
“Rich Baby” by Drake, Sexyy Red, and SZA was the #1 most-played song on Rhythmic CHR (Hip Hop oriented hit music stations) last November.
Flo Milli’s “Never Lose Me” reached #8 on Rhytmic CHR in March.
“La Diabla” by Xavi was #1 on Billboard’s Latin Airplay chart (reflecting the music on Spanish-language music stations in the U.S.) in February.
3) There’s one song that’s… problematic.
That leaves us with Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign’s ‘Carnival’
The song is receiving airplay—it was the 14th most-played song in the aforementioned Rhythmic CHR stations for the week ending April 14th, according to Mediabase.
But Carnival—and it’s primary artist—have issues.
As Billboard’s Trevor Anderson notes, “[Ye’s] recent string of hate speech and antisemitic remarks almost certainly caused programmers to tread slowly into playing any new material.” Angel Diaz from Billboard, adds, “It’s clear Ye has amassed a new legion of fans who are more tolerant of his antics off the field; ones who are able to excuse his bigotry and abrasiveness. But his older fans ([…] have been mostly turned off by his shenanigans.”
Even in its streaming performance, however, “Carnival,” doesn’t show the Retention of a song that has mass-appeal hit potential: After peaking with a massive 115-million streams during the week ending March 7th (because of course people are going to check out Ye), the song is only garnering about half that many streams five weeks later. If this rate holds, the song will only retain 28% of its peak streams at the 10-week past peak benchmark.
No matter how many folks sampled “Carnival” when it dropped—either to show allegiance with Ye or to check out the train wreck—that low Retention is the sign of a song without a mass-appeal passive fan base. For Top 40 Radio, that means a flop.
RETENTION AND MULTI-WEEK STREAMING TOTALS SHOW TOP 40 IS PLAYING MASS APPEAL HITS
Based solely on long-range streaming numbers and strong week-by-week Retention, Spotify data does indeed validate that America’s Top 40 radio programmers are picking songs a large number of listeners know and love. While I do believe radio needs to re-embrace championing new music, and that radio needs to reconnect with younger tastemakers, the notion that radio is out of touch because it’s not playing whatever is #1 on Spotify this week is simply not a valid conclusion.
Even without access to callout research, examining streaming data for songs that 1) perform well over time and 2) retain their audience week after week show Top 40 radio and Spotify have far more hits in common than they lack.
Sources for this post:
Mediabase - Published Panel - Past 7 Days (week of 4/7/2024): http://www.mediabase.com/mmrweb/fmqb/charts.asp?SHOWYEAR=N
Spotify Charts (weeks of 1/4/2024 through 4/11/2024 for the USA): https://charts.spotify.com/charts/overview/us
“Why Olivia Rodrigo’s “Vampire” Is No. 1 on the Hot 100—Again” by Chris Molamphy, 22 September 2023: https://chris.molanphy.com/why-olivia-rodrigos-vampire-is-no-1-on-the-hot-100-again/
Billboard Magazine: “Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign Bring ‘Carnival’ to No. 1 on Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs Chart”: https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/kanye-west-ty-dolla-sign-carnival-number-1-hot-rb-hip-hop-songs-chart-1235624699/
Billboard Magazine: “Ye Is Already Letting Drama Overshadow His First No. 1 Record in 13 Years”: https://www.billboard.com/music/rb-hip-hop/kanye-west-carnival-overshadowed-yesjulz-1235633573/