The Best Year to be Born if You Want to Be a Superstar
Throughout the 66-year history of the Billboard Hot 100, three specific years spawned Pop's most iconic artists. That's no coincidence.
So, you want to be a pop star. Not just an artist with a couple of Top 10 hits. You want to be a legend.
The year your parents decided to conceive you might be more important than your talent.
From the inception of Billboard’s Hot 100 chart through today, the typical artist with a top 10 hit is 28 years old.
Generally, four out of five top 10 hit makers are between 20 and 35 years old.
In theory, the artists having hits should be as evenly distributed as the birthrates.
They aren’t
I’ve gathered the birth dates for every solo artist who scored a Top 10 hit from the inception of the Billboard Hot 100 in 1958 through September 2024. I’ve also calculated an effective birth date for the most impactful groups with Top 10 hits by averaging the birth dates of each group’s key members: John (10/9/1940), Paul (6/18/1942), George (2/25/1943) and Ringo (7/7/1940) give the Beatles an effective birth date of September 22, 1941. I excluded novelty and holiday songs. (Sorry, Brenda Lee, but you do get credit for your other 12 Top 10 hits.)
I then grouped the artists by the year they were born and analyzed how many Top 10 hits each year’s artist created.
Throughout this analysis, I’ve grouped artists by generation. I rely on Neil Howe and Bill Strauss’ seminal work Generations: The History of America’s Future for my definition of generational cohorts. They coined the name Millennials in this book. The birth years they define vary from what you’ll often see, but Strauss & Howe have actual peer reviewed academic research behind their definitions. If that doesn’t convince you to trust them, They predicted “The Crisis of 2020” in this book—in 1991.
I go into great detail on how generations impact sudden shifts in popular music tastes in The Generational Music Theorem.
The best years to become a pop star
Below are the number of Top 10 songs generated by artists born during each year.
First, let’s identify and discount four birth years predominantly driven by a single megastar:
1935 is Elvis Presley
1969 is mostly Mariah Carey (not even including Christmas)
1986 is largely Drake and Lady Gaga
1989 is so much Taylor Swift, she gets to name her album the entire year.
That leaves us with these five years.
#5 - 1981
This year gave us Beyoncé, Britney Spears, Justin Timberlake, Alicia Keys and Pitbull, It also spawned Natasha Bedingfield, LMFAO, Yo Gotti, Jay Sean, and MIMS, which is why 1981 is hot.
#4 - 1963
Whitney Houston, George Michael, and Richard Marx are its biggest artists. En Vogue, Vanessa Williams, Coolio, Seal, and Natalie Merchant also joined us that year. It was also a pivotal year for posterior admirers with the birth of Sir Mix-a-Lot
#3 - 1958
It’s the birth year for the trilogy of legends that define 80s music; Madonna, Prince, and Michael Jackson. Other 80s stars born in ’58 include R.E.M., UB40, Crowded House, and the Go Go’s Belinda Carlisle. 1958 also gave us 70s teen idols Shaun Cassidy and Andy Gibb. Nerd-Rock icon Thomas Dolby blinded us with his birth in ’58. Finally, the 1958 birth cohort charted as late as 2022 thanks to Kate Bush.
#2 - 1943
It represents the effective birth year for three of the defining acts of the 60s; The Rolling Stones, The Supremes, and The Beach Boys. It’s also the effective birth date for Sly and the Family Stone, The Lovin' Spoonful, and The Doors. Early 60s hitmakers Bobby Vee, Brian Hyland, and Little Eva are ’43 babies. 1970s stars Barry Manilow, John Denver, and Carly Simon are ’43 babies. So are Jim Croce, Randy Newman, and Steve Miller. Janis Joplin and Joni Mitchell, too. Disco queen Gloria Gaynor, former Beatle George Harrison, and Fleetwood Mac’s Christine McVie also joined us in 1943. Finally, if Mickey blows your mind, note Toni Basil’s 1943 birth.
#1 - 1941
It’s the average birth year of The Beatles, but also the actual birth year of both Paul Simon & Art Garfunkel. The Mamas and the Papas, Martha and the Vandellas, and The 5th Dimension also have effective birth dates in 1941. Soul icons Wilson Pickett and Otis Redding have actual births in ’41. Chubby Checker twisted onto planet earth in ’41. So did 70s stars The Captain & Tennille and Helen Reddy. 1941 spawned the swanky sounds of Sérgio Mendes & Brasil '66 and the introspective perspectives of Nilsson and Joan Baez. Early Rock ‘n’ Roll legend Ritchie Valens, among the icons lost the day the music died, was a ’41 baby. Speaking of icons, the voice of the Boomer generation was actually a Silent generation 1941 baby-- Bob Dylan.
What’s remarkable about the 1941 and 1943 cohorts is that these icons joined us at a time of notoriously low birth rates. Assuming raw talent emerges randomly, you’d expect these years to have a smaller chance of birthing Rock legends—not become the two most important birth years in Rock history.
Lest you think I’m simply cherry-picking birth years here… 1976’s biggest hitmakers were Ja Rule and Tevin Campbell and 1956’s biggest artist was Debbie Boone.
Who made the hits that made each decade?
In the following graphs, we’ll examine just how impactful the artists born during these pivotal years have been for popular music. Each bubble on the graph represents a Top 10 hit.
How far from left to right each bubble is shows the year each Top 10 song peaked on the Hot 100. The more to the right, the newer the hit.
How far from top to bottom each bubble is corresponds to the birth date for each song’s artist. The closer to the top, the older the artist.
The bigger the bubble for each song, the more weeks the song spent in the Top 10.
On the right, I’ve denoted to which generation artists born during those year belong. .
The Sixties - A decade defined by just two birth years
From the time The Beatles invaded until Woodstock culminated The Sixties, artists born in 1941 through 1943 dominate the Top 10. As we’ll see in future graphs, it is highly unusual that such a narrow age range will dominate the Top 10 for the better half of a decade.
To put it in context, had those 1941-1943 artists never been born, the biggest artist of the mid to late 1960s would have been The Monkees.
1964 also marks a point where older (1926-1934 born) Silent-generation artists’ hits largely ended. Examining their entire generation across all hit-making years, even artists born in the 1920s regularly scored Top 10 hits in the early 60s.
These artists such as Ray Charles, Brook Benton, Andy Williams, and The Kingston Trio, simply weren’t as appealing to Boomers once the British Invasion happened.
In contrast, The Silent Generation’s younger artists enjoyed longer careers. Tina Turner (born 1939) had a #9 hit in 1993.
The Seventies - New hitmakers, same birth years
Those first-wave Boomers—and even the youngest Silent Generation artists—continued having Top 10 hits throughout the early and mid 1970s. The Rolling Stones and Neil Diamond kept having hits. Carol King, Carly Simon, and Jim Croce started having hits. Three Dog Night dominated the early 70s. Barry Manilow, John Denver, and The Captain and Tennille were ubiquitous in the mid 70s. All four Beatles had solo careers, as did Paul Simon. Barbara Streisand reached her chart pinnacle.
All of these artists were born between 1941 and 1943.
Throughout the 70s, however, few artists born after 1950 had big hits. The Jackson Five and The Osmonds did based on their youth. Late 1940s-born artists would later dominate Disco. The Bee Gees and Donna Summer were both 1948 creations.
At a time when we would expect to see younger artists emerge, however, those babies born during World War II in the sixties simply wouldn’t yield the spotlight in the 70s.
The Eighties - Three icons, one birth year
Those first-wave Boomers continued dominating the Top 10 into the early 1980s. New artists from this vintage emerged, including Air Supply. Existing artists grew even bigger, including Hall & Oates, Chicago, Foreigner, Journey, Bruce Springsteen, and Lionel Richie. The Rolling Stones, Elton John, Rod Stewart, and Billy Joel kept on having hits. Rick Springfield finally became famous in the early 80s. Aerosmith reinvented themselves in the late 80s.
While their ranks thinned out as the decade progressed, these artists—now all over 30—remained relevant far longer than most artists do.
Starting in 1982, another Boomer birth year would overtake the 80s; The aforementioned 1958-born trinity of Michael Jackson, Prince, and Madonna. These late-wave Boomer artists become icons by redefining music for Generation X music consumers. At the same time, a first wave of 1963-born Xers succeeded by appealing to Boomers, who were significant consumers of popular music—most notably Whitney Houston and George Michael. And Richard Marx.
In the late 80s, note that more and more Gen X artists are scoring Top 10 hits. That’s about to matter.
The Nineties - Generation X overtakes the Top 10
Before we dive into the Flannel Decade, let’s examine just how long-lasting the careers of Boomer-born artists were—and still are. Their 1943-born cohort had hits from 1959 when Fabian was a teen idol until 1989 when the The Beach Boys and The Rolling Stones had their last Top 10 hits. While many of their hitmaking careers finally ended in 1989, Aerosmith, Eric Clapton, Elton John, and Cher had massive hits in the 1990s
The 1958-born icons that appealed to Xers also kept on having hits. Madonna had her last solo Top 10 in 2009. Kate Bush scored the Top 10 she should have had in 1985 in 2022—at age 64.
No other generation’s artists had more staying power than The Boomers.
When those 1940s’ born icons did finally cede the charts, Generation X finally had room to overtake them—seemingly overnight—in the early 1990s.
The early and mid 1990s belonged to those first-wave Generation X performers born between 1961 and 1971, such as Mariah Carey, Janet Jackson, Toni Braxton, Wilson Phillips, Ace of Base, Céline Dion, and (ugh) R. Kelly.
The late 1990s shifted towards 1970s-born Xer artists such as Boyz II Men, TLC, and Jewel. More importantly, the late 90s Boy Bands—appealing to Millennial teens—were born during the 70s, including Backstreet Boys, The Spice Girls, and N’ Sync.
The Aughts - Generation X’s youngest artists make Hip Hop happy
One artifact of Boomers’ long lasting careers is that few Gen X teenagers became hitmakers, especially those Xers born in the 1960s.
Also unlike Boomers, few Generation X artists enjoyed careers past age 35, especially those Xers born during the 1960s. In contrast to 1943-born Boomers’ 30-year career span, 1962-born Xers started with Corey Hart in 1984 and ended—pathetically—with Garth Brooks as Chris Gaines in 1999, a scant 15-years.
Younger Generation X artists fared better.
Starting in ’03, artists such as Usher Flo Rida, The Black Eyed Peas, Outkast, and 50 Cent dominated the Top 10 with a happier version of Hip Hop. These artists were the youngest Xers (born 1975 to 1981) but created music that appealed to Millennials. It’s when Beyoncé became Beyoncé.
The Teens - Millennial artists dominate
The very last of the Xers, including LMFAO Taio Cruz, Pitbull and Maroon 5, kept having hits through the mid-2010s. The first half of the teens belonged to 1980s-born Millennial artists, including Rihanna, Bruno Mars, Drake, Lady Gaga, Adele, Kesha, and Taylor Swift.
As the decade’s music changed, 1990s-born artists such as The Weeknd, Travis Scott, Lil Uzi Vert, and Fetty Wap emerged, while Ariana Grande, Ed Sheeran, and One Direction become Pop’s standard-bearers. In 2019, Billie Eilish became the first artist born in this millennium to have a Top 10 hit.
Not coincidentally, its during the late 2010s when streaming services such as Spotify and YouTube replace iTunes and overtake FM radio as the dominant ways to consume new music.
The Twenties – Still waiting on a new generation
The first half of this decade belongs overwhelmingly to late-weave Millennial hitmakers. By Strauss & Howe generational cohort definitions, we have yet to have a true Gen Z artist (born 2005 or later) score a Top 10 hit. Olivia Rodrigo (born 2003) comes close.
Looking at the graph above. You’ll notice artists are aging in place since 2020. Post Malone, Noah Kahan, Sabrina Carpenter, and Chappell Roan were all born in the 1990s.
What’s remarkable about Millennial artists is how consistent their careers have been, regardless of their birth year. From oldest to youngest, a new 17 year old star typically emerges every few years.
Unless Generation Z completely steals their spotlight, we can expect Millennial artists to continue having hits throughout the 2040s.
Get in line now for those Taylor Swift AARP Tour ‘39 tickets.
These years aren’t random
So why did 1981, 1963, 1958, 1943, and 1941 birth so many iconic artists? Any why did 1989, 1969, and 1935 give us one massive legend?
The most superstars are born when generations are transitioning.
1941 and 1943 are exactly when the Silent Generation (whose youngest members could at least vaguely recall the war) transitioned to the Boomers (whose oldest members have no memory of it.)
1958’s younger siblings were Generation X babies—born just before folks took the pill not to have babies.
1981 is the very last year for Xers, before those Baby on Board stickers emerged.
Those artists who straddle a generational divide are born with a special gift: They can understand the mindset of both their own generation AND the younger generation who ultimately pick the hits.
Had Bob Dylan, Price, or Beyoncé been born just a few years earlier, they would not have had the life experiences, perspectives, or personal relationships to understand their fans.
It’s also why those artists born at the very beginning of a new generation are often so successful. Barry Mannelow and Whitney Houston are prime examples of artists whose fans chiefly belonged to an older generation.
The superstars of a single generation emerge in the middle birth years of that generation.
Elvis Presley (1935) defined Rock ‘n’ Roll for middle America in the late 50s.
The raw talent of Mariah Carey (1969) rescued the recording industry from the inauthenticity of the Milli Vanilli crisis and defined Pop-friendly R&B in the 90s.
The political options of Taylor Swift (1989) hold more sway than all of our nation’s newspapers’ op-ed pages.
Each of these artists are so successful, they single-handedly made the year of thier birth one of the biggest birth years for generating Top 10 hits in chart history. All three icons’ birth years are smack in the middle of their generation’s birth years. This fate gives these artists the ability to understand both the younger and older members of their generation. As artists, they instinctively lean into this perspective to dominate the tastes of their generation.
What about the Boomers? Who is their mid-generation superstar?
There’s actually a pair of artists born in 1948 we’ve barely talked about yet. If we examine how many weeks this birth year’s artists spent in the Top 10 (instead of how many songs each year’s artists charted), we most certainly would have
They’re The Bee Gees and Donna Summer.
When will we meet the next generation of icons?
According to Strauss & Howe’s methodology, the most recent split between two generation’s birth years is 2004, when the last Millennials arrived, and 2005, when the first Gen Z babies emerged.
In Neil Howe’s latest book The Fourth Turning Is Here, he now tags that divide as 2005 vs. 2006. He also calls those high school kids The Homelander Generation. (“Neil, stop trying to make Homelanders' happen, it's NOT going to happen.”)
During the second half of the 2020s, we should expect a batch of new artists, born in 2003 or 2004, to become the next new thing in Pop music. They’ll be the very youngest Millennials, but it will be Generation Z music fans who turn them into stars.
We’ve seen a sneak peak of this dynamic with Billie Eilish (2001), Lil’ Nas X (1999), and Olivia Rodrigo (2003). However, they were all born a bit too early to totally connect with today’s school kids the way the next wave of artists will resonate. They’re not Beatles, Prince, or Beyoncé level.
So when will those new icons finally have their first Top 10 hits?
All I can tell you is that it’s already overdue.
Sources for this post:
The Billboard Hot 100: https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100
Wikipedia’s Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 singles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Billboard_Hot_100_top-ten_singles
Strauss, W., & Howe, N. (1991). Generations: the history of America's future, 1584 to 2069. New York, William Morrow and Company Inc.