Is 2024 the New 1982?

1982 marked the last year of a bad run for new music in general and hit music radio in particular. Is 2024 finally the end of the hit music malaise?

Noah Kahan (2024) vs. Dan Fogelberg (1982): Separated at birth?

How do you accurately predict the future? Look for patterns in the past. That’s the most important thing I learned in 17 years of researching music and media.

While many (mostly old) pundits suggest even young people have forever lost interest in new music, my knowledge of pop music history suggests the current doldrums for new pop music are neither new nor permanent. In fact, I’ve spotted three eerie similarities between 2024’s biggest hits and the hit songs of another year that ultimately launched a rebirth of new music: 1982.

Here’s the data:

#1: Unusually old artists

Over the history of the Billboard Hot 100 since its inception in 1958, the typical artist achieving a Top 10 hit is 28 years old. So far in 2024, the average age of a top 10 hitmaker is 33—the same age as the typical Top 10 artist in 1982. 

Both the early 1980s and early 2020s mark eras of unusually high percentage of artists over 30. In 1982, Paul McCartney and Niel Diamond both scored hits in their 40s. In 2024, Beyonce and Kanye West have scored hits in their 40s—and Eminem is over 50.  Meanwhile, neither 1982 nor 2024 (so far) have given us Top 10 hits from any artist who is still a teenager.

If history repeats itself here, we can soon expect a re-infusion of artists under 25 and a corresponding re-invigoration of hit music’s vitality.  In 1982, Generation X artists had yet began making hits. Similarly in 2024, we have yet to see a true Generation Z hitmaker emerge. 

#2: Steep decline in Rhythmic hits

After America turned on disco, anything remotely Rhythmic had a difficult time getting airplay on American Top 40 radio. By 1982, the percentage of R&B, Dance, and Rhythmic music had fallen from 49% in 1979 to only 10% in 1982. It would take until the end of the decade when New Jack Swing and ultimately Hip Hop would return black-oriented music back to late 1970s levels.

While there has been no corresponding cultural backlash against Hip Hop and R&B, the percentage of Rhythmic-oriented titles has fallen considerably since the late 2010’s surge: In 2020, Hip Hop and Rhythmic Pop/R&B comprised 7 out of 10 Top 10 hits in a typical week. So far in 2024, only 3 out of 10 of a typical week’s biggest hits are Rhythmic genres.  

#3: Continued spike in Country hits

Last year marked a watershed for Country: Twenty-five percent (25%) of all songs in the Top 10 in a typical week were Country, more than any other year in Hot 100 history. Although the  vast majority of those hits were from Morgan Wallen and Zach Bryan, those artists achieved a monumental milestone: They’re the first artists whose fans play them on streaming services at rates comparable to Hip Ho and Pop artists. 

In 2024, Wallen and Bryan—along with streaming of Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter project—have kept Country in the Top 10. There’s a particular pop-friendly nature to this year’s biggest Country titles, with Post Malone duetting with Morgan Wallen and Shaboozy blending Country with Pop-friendly Hip Hop.

Sound familiar?

Flash back to 1982: The Urban Cowboy phenomenon helped score Top 10 Country hits for Kenny Rogers, Dolly Parton, Eddie Rabbitt, and Juice Newton among others. Those Country Crossover hits continued in 1982, including Willie Nelson’s power balled “Always On My Mind”.

If history repeats itself here, Country music’s days in the Top 10 might be numbered. In 1983, Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton enjoyed a Top 10 smash with their pop-friendly Barry Gibb penned hit “Islands In The Stream.” Save for 1992’s unavoidable novelty “Achy Breaky Heart,” Country wouldn’t routinely appear among Americas 10 biggest songs until 1997. 

To be clear, I have no evidence that history will repeat itself here. In the mid-1980s, Nashville made a conscious pivot away from chasing Pop fans to super serving Country’s core with New Traditionalism. Randy Travis, The Judds, and “The King” George Strait were megastars—but only among those folks who were raised on Country.

The Nashville Industrial Complex can’t call the shots in the 2020s as directly as it did in the 1980s: Streaming gives too much control to fans to un-cancel Morgan Wallen or make “Something In The Orange” huge, even if radio doesn’t understand it. On the other hand, America’s increasing political polarization may erect musical silos, with the biggest stars overtly catering to the Tractor Supply Company shoppers and completely eschewing the Costco crowd. 

Will history repeat itself?

For the sake of new music in general and the health of Contemporary Hit Radio (CHR) specifically, I personally hope so.

Midway through 1982, Adult friendly artists such as Air Supply, Dan Fogelberg, and The Little River Band still ruled the Top 10. (Are Benson Boone and Noah Kahan sonically any different? Do they even look any different?)

Later that year, however, The Human League brought New Wave to the chart’s penthouse for the first time with “Don’t You Want Me.” Soft Cell’s “Tainted Love” would chart next, followed by Men At Work and A Flock Of Seagulls. The following year (1983), Michael Jackson and Price became legends, while Duran Duran, Eurythmics, The Police, and Spandau Ballet would end the early 80s soft rock malaise.

It's too soon to tell if Chappell Roan or Sabrina Carpenter represent the sound of hits to come, or if a far bigger sonic evolution awaits us in the coming months. Music gurus are noticing, however, that the Top 10 is interesting for the first time in a long time.

Why this comparison matters for radio programmers

On August 2^nd, 1983, an also ran New Jersey radio station dropped easy listening for today’s hottest hits and relaunched as New York’s Z100. Famously, the station was #1 in New York a scant 82 days later.

The timing was perfect—1983’s pop hits are legendary. Beyond the music, however, Scott Shannon programmed Z100 with a sound and attitude geared towards Generation X: Z100 sounded nothing like New York’s previous Top 40 King 77-WABC, whose sound was perfected to please Boomers.  

2024 offers no guarantee of a Top 40 radio resurgence. Even if a new music renaissance is imminent, Generation Z hasn’t grown up with radio. If next year enjoys a new music resurgence on par with 1983, radio will not merely need to play those hits: Radio will need to reinvent every other programming relevant around a new generation. 

For the sake of a medium I love, I hope programmers will start preparing now for that opportunity.

Sources for this post:

• The Billboard Hot 100: https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100

• Wikipedia’s Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 singles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Billboard_Hot_100_top-ten_singles

Further reading:

• Guy Zapoleon: 2023 Marked Fourth Year Of Worst Music Doldrums For Top 40 Radio.: https://www.insideradio.com/free/guy-zapoleon-2023-marked-fourth-year-of-worst-music-doldrums-for-top-40-radio/article_6b1a4eb4-9e48-11ee-827f-9f9c3f6c47db.html

• Warren Kurtzman: Generation Z Is Really Different: Your Approach To Reaching Them Should Be, Too: https://colemaninsights.com/coleman-insights-blog/generation-z-is-really-different-your-approach-to-reaching-them-should-be-too