FREE Sample of The Hit Momentum Report from Graphs About Songs

If you program Pop music, see it here and decide if it's for you.

Yesterday, Graphs About Songs unveiled The Hit Momentum Report, a weekly paid newsletter analyzing streaming music data for professional Pop music programmers. As I detail in our launch announcement here, the report separates the songs only artist or genre partisans are playing from the songs lots of people know and love. In other words, it find the radio hits.

“OK, but will it actually help me choose the right songs for my CHR, Hot AC, or Rhythmic CHR station?”

Below is the debut report for the week for the week of August 12, 2024:

• If it would help your work as a music programmer, upgrade to paid at the end of the post and you’ll receive the latest report Monday morning around 11:30 ET.

• If it’s not for you, I’m honored to have you as a free subscriber for my regular transformations of the songs that stir your soul into bar charts.

And now, on with The Hit Momentum Report…

Not only is Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe! the most-played song in our group of Current-vintage songs with “Great” Momentum Index^SM scores, it’s also the overall most-streamed song this week with over 14 million plays on Spotify in the U.S. Six other Roan titles make the list, indicating that Chappell Roan is indeed a mas-appeal artist.

Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER has well over twice as many streaming plays this week as Billie Eilish - LUNCH, despite “LUNCH” receiving more airplay. With a 60% Momentum Index score, “Birds of a Feather” continues to retain fans. In contrast, “Lunch” was originally the bigger song, but has consistently lost listeners week to week (hence its “Poor” Momentum Index).

Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) continues to enjoy strong streaming and Momentum, confirming the song indeed has appeal beyond Country.

Let’s now examine songs in the “Mixed” Momentum group that require more careful examination.

Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us has grown an audience beyond Hip Hop’s core fan base. It’s audience isn’t as universal as a huge Pop hit, but is much broader than most pure Hip Hop titles, especially for a diss track where it helps to know the backstory. However, both streams and Momentum for “Not Like Us” has steadily for the past three weeks. My interpretation here is that fans are simply losing passion for “Not Like Us” as it approaches being four months old.

With over 12 million streams on Spotify this week, Post Malone, Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help is still huge. However, it’s “Mixed” Momentum Index score of 39% suggest CHR stations should carefully consider if their listeners also are at least moderate fans of Country.

Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso has only recently began losing Momentum. It spent most of its time in the “Great” momentum group. “Espresso’s” recent loss of streams and momentum suggest listeners are simply growing tired of the song after months of exposure. In contrast, Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please has always exhibited lackluster Momentum, with relatively few listeners continuing to play it after it debuted. In this case, “Please Please Please” performs like a typical follow-up hit that simply doesn’t live up to the previous track.

Hozier - Too Sweet, the most-played song last week on America’s Mainstream CHR stations, only has a 40% Momentum index in its fourth week. I suspect two factors are at play here: First, Hozier always probably appealed more to listeners 30 and older than listeners in their 20s. Second, as the song is now five months old, listeners may simply be growing tired of it.

Despite still garnering almost 10 million plays this week, Tommy Richman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY continues slipping. This week, it falls below the 30% benchmark for songs with “poor” momentum, indicating the song may have more detractors than fans at this point. “Baby” was a hit, but its Momentum is running out.

Eminem - Houdini’s performance suggests lots of longtime fans excitedly checked out his new release, but quickly decided they didn’t like it. Houdini received a bump when radio increased its airplay, but those new fans also are quickly abandoning it.

Finally among the currents, Taylor Swift, Post Malone - Fortnight continues to have an abysmal Momentum Index of 16%, suggesting even Swifties don’t like it. “Cruel Summer” received more plays this week than did “Fortnight.”

Among new songs, Jimin - Who is the clear breakout this week. With over 13 million plays this week and a very strong 94% Momentum Index in its third week, “Who” isn’t merely receiving affinity plays from K-Pop stans.

Charli xcx - Apple continues gaining audience in its fourth week—how brat. Hanumankind, Kalmi - Big Dawgs is also growing, but it’s only in its second week. I encourage tracking it for several more weeks before judging its Momentum.

Normally, The Hit Momentum Report wouldn’t track Gold titles, but with *NSYNC - Bye Bye Bye appearing on the Deadpool and Wolverine Soundtrack, it’s performance is worth noting.

Among new songs with less spectacular Momentum are several Country titles, indicating these songs may have appeal limited to Country’s core listeners, but not have crossover appeal for Pop fans as so many other Country titles have had this year.

Charli xcx feat. Billie Eilish - Guess is the only new release this week with significant sampling in its debut week.

Among Recurrent vintage titles, Benson Boone - Beautiful Things, Noah Kahan - Stick Season and Teddy Swims - Lose Control all remain strong, while Tyler, The Creator, Kali Uchis - See You Again also remains among the most streamed Recurrents after its TikTok fueled emergence last year.

Unlike tracks from The Tortured Poets Department, listeners continue streaming Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer. As noted above, “Cruel Summer” now has more plays than “Fortnight.”

Finally, there are several tracks that are now several years old which still appear on streaming charts, but whose Momentum long also slipped into the “Mixed” group: SZA - Kill Bill, Tate McRae - greedy, and Harry Styles - As It Was were all strong performers in the past. Listeners now consider them tool old to be relevant, but not old enough to be classic.

A final note for this week. You may be searching the report for Dua Lipa - Illusions. It’s among CHR’s biggest tracks currently, but hasn’t been among the 200 most—played songs on Spotify since May. “Illusions” appears to be one of those songs that people are happy to hear on the radio, but simply don’t seek out on streaming.

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